tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6318406227111514879.post1683082872361407596..comments2023-04-25T15:47:20.186-04:00Comments on Caterwauled: Obama, you betchaEd McKeonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14767520306585909279noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6318406227111514879.post-2463163594856395112008-11-04T23:54:00.000-05:002008-11-04T23:54:00.000-05:00Congratulations, Ed, on your great call! I don't t...Congratulations, Ed, on your great call! I don't think I've ever been happier to be proven wrong. Maybe the glass has been half-full all along?<BR/><BR/>Tonight, I'm one proud American.<BR/><BR/>:^)<BR/><BR/><BR/>--Pete T.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6318406227111514879.post-84373201615443863962008-11-04T06:43:00.000-05:002008-11-04T06:43:00.000-05:00Correct as always, Pete. It's really the only thi...Correct as always, Pete. It's really the only thing that scares me. And I think a landslide will make fucking with the vote impossible.Ed McKeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14767520306585909279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6318406227111514879.post-12444681048932552682008-11-03T19:38:00.000-05:002008-11-03T19:38:00.000-05:00You would think here in New England we'd be over i...<I>You would think here in New England we'd be over it...But every Barack Obama supporter I meet is wringing his or her hands about his chances of winning... Me, I'm banking on a landslide...I think he's gonna win big, and if you don't believe me, ask a bookie.</I><BR/><BR/>Maybe the mistake you're making here is that you're focusing on the qualities of the candidates and the will of the people, as measured by pre-election polls. Could you be overlooking the fact that in the last two presidential elections, the will of the people was not accurately measured? (It's odd that the human mind can be so good at perceiving patterns where they don't really exist -- such as in a stream of random events -- but it can be so inept at identifying some patterns that really do exist.) <BR/><BR/>For your consideration, I submit this paper: <A HREF="http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/Documents/ExitPoll.pdf" REL="nofollow">The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy</A>, by Steven F. Freeman of the University of Pennsylvania. Speaking of the 2004 election results in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, the author claims to have "(1) documented that, in general, exit poll data are sound, (2) demonstrated that it is exceedingly unlikely that the deviations between exit poll predictions and vote tallies in the three critical battleground states could have occurred strictly by chance or random error, and (3) explained why explanations for the discrepancy thus far provided are inadequate."<BR/><BR/>I hope you are correct, and that the things you cite can generate enough support to overcome the (very likely) effects of fraud and voter suppression that's been present in the past two elections. However, I am more inclined to believe they will, together, reduce the clear lead than Obama enjoys in public support to a near dead heat with McCain in several critical swing states -- including Pennsylvania. <BR/><BR/>I'd be interested if any flaws are identified in the linked paper, and I'm certainly curious what your thoughts might be about the possibility of real, but nearly un-reported, threats to our electoral process, and thus to our democracy. James Carville recently alluded (I think) to this very threat on a cable news show a couple of weekes ago, when he predicted widespread chaos if the the polls showed a clear Obama lead going into election day, but McCain still wins. <BR/><BR/>Please let me be wrong. <BR/><BR/>--Pete T.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com